- Darryl Sutter has hinted in several interviews that he has all but completed a deal with Daymond Langkow. The Flame’s #1 centerman has scored 30+ goals and 60+ points the last two seasons. Estimates suggest the contract (which has yet to be officially confirmed) is in the $5M/year, 3 year range.

- Sutter has also mentioned that he pursued European scorer Fabian Brunnstrom prior to his signing with Dallas and the organization has it’s eyes on some other potential diamonds in the rough from overseas.

Apparently, Swedish Elite league scorer Martin Thornberg is also garnering Sutter’s attention. The 25 year-old left winger 20 goals and 37 points in 51 games last season and added 17 points in 17 games in the post-season. From first-hand accounts, Thornberg was a part of one of the best forward units in the league with linemates Johann Davidsson and Juka Voutilainen. No word on whether the Flames have actually offered Thornberg a contract or simply a try-out.

While it’s difficult to assess his potential impact at the NHL level, the Flames as an organization are woefully shallow at left wing behind Alex Tanguay (Eric Nystrom, Marcus Nilson, Brandon Prust), so Thornberg’s addition would likely be a welcome one, at either the NHL or AHL level.

- Another name that has cropped up recently is former Phoenix Coyotes/Toronto Maple Leaf/Minnesota Wild Erik Westrum. Westrum is a bit older at 29 and has already spent some time in the NHL and AHL. He’s been a scorer at almost every level he’s played, including college hockey (168 points in 161 games), the American Hockey League (295 points in 420 games, including a 98 point season with the Houston Aeros) and, most recently, the Swiss-A League (33 goals and 70 points in 55 games). Despite decent stats at the lower levels, Westrum has never been able to stick in the big leagues, even though he’s had a cup of coffee with all of the teams listed above.

Like Thornberg, nothing official has been announced, although rumors claim that the Flames have offered Westrum a one-way offer. Considering Darryl Sutter’s reticence to grant one-way deals to relatively unproven plaayers (Mark Giordano comes to mind), I personally find that hard to believe. However, with the team’s impending budget crunch, Sutter may be forced beyond his “comfort zones” in order to fill out a roster poised to lose a lot of players to unrestricted free agency (Kristian Huselius, Owen Nolan, Stephane Yelle, Craig Conroy) and lacking enough young prospects to fill the gaps.

*(predicted re-sign value).

Damond Langkow is on the final year of a 3 year contract that paid him an average of 2.442M/season. He already has 25 goals and 56 points this season, just a year after recording 33 goals and 77 points. This year marks the 6th consecutive season Langkow has breached the 20 goal barrier and the 8th consecutive year he’s scored 50 or more points. He’s also been a plus player for the majority of his career. The last time he was in the red in terms of plus/minus was way back in the ‘98-99 season with the Philadelphia Flyers (-8).

In short, Langkow is the very picture of consistency. While he’s never going to be a big time point producer, he’s an established 20 goal, 50 point player who is both versatile and durable. It’s safe to say he would be a pretty hot commodity on the open market and it will no doubt cost the Flames a few more dollars than they’re currently paying to retain him.

Let’s assume Sutter pulls some jiggery-pokery with a long-term, descending type contract (see: Kippers extension, which pays him a relatively tiny 1.5M in the final year, thereby reducing the overall cap-hit substantially) and gets Langkow for a minimal raise – say 3.5M/year for example. That increases the committed dollars to about 47.5M and, reducing the resultant remaining space to between 7-9M (IF the Flames spend right up to next year’s cap). Seven to nine million dollars to sign or replace Conroy, Nolan, Yelle, Huselius and Hale. Huselius alone is positioned to soak up more than half of that figure, meaning:

- Sutter has a plan to reduce the committed cap dollars by cutting some of the roster fat, ie: Wayne Primeau (1.4M), Rhett Warrener (2.35M) and Marcus Nilson (1m), all of whom are healthy scratches more often than not.

And

- Sutter’s prepared to wave good-bye to Huselius, who is one of the top 5 UFA LWers available this summer and will likely be seeking his first big-time contract.

As predicted, Alex Tanguay was not dealt for spare parts like Ryder or Tucker, although one wonders what actual package a player like Alex could have commanded considering the returns for guys like Brad Richards (3 roster players) and Marian Hossa (3 roster players + 1st round draft pick).

In addition, Darryl Sutter decided to hang on to pending UFA’s Daymond Langkow and Kristian Huselius, and was unable to off-load some of the dead-weight on the roster (Rhett Warrener, Anders Eriksson). It’s unclear whether he intends to try to re-sign Langkow and Huslius in the off-season or if he was simply unsatisfied by what was offered for them and decided they were more valuable to the Flames in the short-term.

Thanks to their relative inactivity, the Flames are still facing a lot of tough decisions come summer: 48.5M in committed salary, 4 top 6 players to re-sign and more than 5M in inefficient contracts to dump.

The frenzy may have ended for most teams on February 26th, but it’ll likely begin for Sutter and the Calgary Flames on July 1st.

General Manager Darryl Sutter told reporters on Monday afternoon that he is not trading Tanguay and he likes the make up of his team. “Alex Tanguay is one of the top left wingers in the National Hockey League an he’ll be a pretty good player for us down the stretch,” he said.

Darryl Sutter has been disingenuous with the press before, so it’s possible he’s simply playing his cards close to his vest again. However, there’s little reason to doubt him now: Tanguay is a key member of team embroiled in a battle to make the play-offs and perhaps with the Northwest Division. Not to mention that pesky NTC in Tanguay’s contract that further complicates any potential deal.

Sorry Montreal and Toronto fans. Alex Tanguay isn’t going anywhere.

1.) Western Canadian guys. Sutter looks for players who were born or played in Western Canada, especially Alberta. In part because there’s a high probability either he or one his brothers have observed the player up close in the past (particularly current Devils coach Brent Sutter thanks to his years of coaching and managing the WHL Red Deer Rebels). In addition, a player who has lived or played in Alberta may be more likely to be familiar and comfortable in Calgary and therefore more amenable to signing a contract with the team. Some recent examples include Brad Stuart (Calgary Hitmen WHL career), Jim Vandermeer (Red Deer Rebels WHL career), Daymond Langkow (born in Edmonton, AB), Jamie Lundmark (born in Edmonton AB) and Eric Godard (born in BC, Lethbridge WHL career).

2.) Former “Sutter” guys. Darryl has been around the league for awhile, coaching for several years in both Chicago and San Jose before becoming the Flames coach and then GM. He draws from his extensive experience and values (some would saying “overly values”) players he’s had – and liked – in the past. Since becoming the Flames general manager, Sutter has acquired or signed Miikka Kiprusoff (Sharks), Tony Amonte (Blackhawks), Jeff Friesen (Sharks), Owen Nolan (Sharks), Mark Smith (Sharks) and Wayne Primeau (Sharks) to name a few.

3.) Guys his brothers know. If he doesn’t have direct knowledge of a player, Sutter leans on one of his 5 brothers (Brent, Brian, Duane, Rich, Ron) to provide him with information. For example, Duane Sutter was part of the Florida Panthers coaching staff from 1996-2002, where he would have had experience with future Darryl Sutter acquisitions Marcus Nilson and Kristian Huselius. Daryl has also made a number of trades with the Phoenix Coyotes during his tenure in Calgary (acquired Langkow and Lundmark) where his brother Rich is a scout. In his first season as Flames GM (’03/’04) Sutter traded for the Blackhawks Ville Neiminen near the deadline. Neiminen’s coach in Chicago that year was Daryl’s brother, Brian.

And so on. It’s clear Sutter likes to have as much primary, first-hand knowledge of a potential acquisition as possible and he takes full advantage of his extensive familial connections (as well as personal experience) throughout the NHL to that end. He’s also stated publicly that he deeply believes in Western Canada’s grass roots and junior hockey systems and their abilities to produce quality players, thus his resultant preference for those players with Western Canada somewhere in their past (over and above the reasons alreayd stated).

So as the deadline nears and the Flames look to tinker heading into the stretch-drive, keep the above in mind…you’ll be way ahead of Eklund, or most other media rumor mongers, in predicting Sutter’s moves.

Unfortunately for Flames fans, it’s a price Calgary will not be able to pay, for several reasons. Firstly, any big name Sutter could hypothetical acquire would be a pure rental: the organization doesn’t have the cap room to try to re-sign any of these guys in the off-season (unless they deal one of their own big names for peanuts). Considering the going rate for high quality free agents (see: Gomez, Drury, Briere, Timonen from last summer), the chances that the Flames could afford someone like Sundin or Hossa, let alone convince them to stay in Calgary, is slim to none.

Secondly, the packages for big name rentals usually include a roster player that can contribute now, a quality prospect and one or two decent draft-picks. In order to be competitive in the future, the Flames can’t afford to give up any one of those assets for a pure rental (let alone a combination of them), because:

1.) With their impending budget concerns, the Flames need to keep all of their bargain-value contracts. Young guys like Matt Lombardi, David Moss and Dustin Boyd are a good bet to out-perform their relatively cheap contracts in the near future. Calgary will actually need MORE of these types of contracts in the summer, not less. That eliminates the “decent roster player” from the equation.

2.) The Flames prospect cupboard is somewhat bare. This summer, the franchise lost up-and-comers Mark Giordano and Andrei Taratukhin to the Russian Elite League and Daniel Ryder to “personal reasons” (quit hockey outright). Former first round draft pick Eric Nystrom played 34 games for the Flames this season, managing just 1 goal, 4 assists and a -9 rating. Given that he’s 25 years-old, Nystrom probably won’t be progressing too much further and projects to be a 4th line, PK specialist in the NHL (and is therefore not of much value). Calgary’s AHL club, the “Quad City Flames” has struggled to remain competitive this year thanks to the organizations dearth of high quality prospects. The farm club has had problems putting the puck in the net in particular, and is currently led in scoring by 26 year-old Grant Stevenson (who is signed for one year with the Flames) and minor-league journeyman Krys Kolanos (who doesn’t have a big league contract at all). Other Flames prospects, including Kris Chucko, Brandon Prust, Matt Pelech, David Van Der Gulik and Tim Ramholt, have generated mediocre stats or worse during their tenure in the AHL and likely wouldn’t garner much interest. As a result, Flames don’t have the kind of futures that other clubs will want AND those few prospects/future assets that Calgary does have of some relative value (Mikael Backlund, Leland Irving, John Negrin, high draft picks) are too precious for the Flames organization to surrender (at least, for a mere 30 or so games of a single player).

On top of all that, GM Daryl Sutter has been very vocal in the local media about making trades “for now AND the future”, meaning he has very little interest in pure rental acquisitions. Last year, he dealt Chuck Kobasew and Andrew Ference for pending UFA’s Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau with a view to re-signing both in the off-season. The gamble didn’t pay off, of course, as Stuart bolted for Los Angeles in the summer. However, the fact remains that Sutter will be looking for players that are either signed through next year to reasonable contracts or at least potentially re-signable come July 1st.

And finally, the Flames aren’t in a position to “go for it” this season. They are battling to simply make the play-offs and can hardly be considering Stanley Cup favorites (or even serious contenders) considering their performance over the course of the year. Selling off a whack of valuable assets to try to make a deep run in the post-season would be a very bad bet and a poor management strategy.

As such, don’t expect any of the “big name” rentals to be donning Calgary silks next Wednesday. The Flames are ill-positioned, and ill-prepared, to pay the requisite price to obtain them.

You see, Tanguay has been connected to a number of teams and players by the MSM recently. And none of the resultant rumors pass even the most cursory sniff test. For example, TSN noted in January that a Darcy Tucker for Tanguay swap was suggested in the Toronto Star. Here are all the ways that is a ridiculous suggestion:

- Both players have no trade clauses (NTC) in their contracts. Perhaps Tucker would waive his NTC to join the Flames for their play-off run…but why would Tanguay leave Calgary for Toronto? The Leafs are entering a re-building phase and are immersed in the biggest media and fan fish-bowl in the league. Not an ideal situation form a players perspective, to say the least.

- Acquiring Tucker for Tanguay would only save the Flames 2.3M in cap space. They would lose a 28 year-old top 3 forward who has scored 20+ goals and 60+ points 5 times in his 8 season career. In exchange, they would receive a 3M winger who is signed (with a NTC) till 2011/12 (when he’ll be 36). Tucker has only managed 60+ points once in 13 seasons and is on pace for about 15 goals and 30 points this season. In short, Tanguay for Tucker is a gross overpayment for a mere 2.3M in cap room.

Of course, the most persistent rumor(s) surrounding Tanguay this season involves the Montreal Canadiens. Primarily because, well…he’s French and it’s assumed French players want to play in Montreal (and Montreal wants French players to play there). A Ryder for Tanguay rumor has proven most resistant to extinction, being reinforced as recently as today by TSN. I believe the entire rumor is something to the effect of “Tanguay for Ryder and a draft pick”. Again, this is a ridiculous suggestion and would represent one of the worst trades since Kevin Lowe’s Chris Pronger for Joffrey Lupul and magic beans swap. Let’s enumerate the absurdities:

- Even though he’s heading for his worst season in the last 5 years, Tanguay is on pace to equal Ryder’s career BEST season total (63 points in ‘03/04).

- Tanguay’s struggles are partially explained by contextual factors in Calgary this year: he’s primarily played with Craig Conroy and Owen Nolan at even-strength so far (both of whom have about half of Tanguay’s point total so far), and he tends to get secondary PP time. Therefore, his dip in production isn’t a sign of failure due to declining ability or injury. It’s an aberration, a “one-off”: his stock is at it’s lowest trading point, meaning trading Tanguay now would be “selling low” and therefore foolhardy.

- Michael Ryder has been abysmal this year. He’s on pace for his lowest point total in his career (44) and has frequently been a healthy scratch. Last season, he was one of the worst forwards on the team in terms of even-strength play, posting a -25 rating in 82 games. In addition, he’s scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this July. He is, for lack of a better term, Montreal’s garbage and is a terrible return for a player of Tanguay’s caliber. Salary dump or no salary dump.

- Daryl Sutter needs cap-space next season, not this one. There is absolutely no impetus to deal Tanguay at the trade deadline, unless the proposed return is significant and therefore impossible to refuse. If Sutter is in fact looking to free up room by trading Tanguay, he has all summer to look for the ideal transaction.

- Despite his relatively poor production, Tanguay still has the 4th most points on the Flames this season, the second best +/- rating and has added penalty-killing to his repertoire of talents at Mike Keenan’s behest. Meaning, although his gross production may be disappointing, he’s still a key cog in Calgary’s system and can’t be excised for a negligible return without doing significant damage to the Flames post-season aspirations.

- The club’s LW depth is extremely shallow after pending UFA Kristian Huselius and Tanguay (Marcus Nilson, Eric Nystrom, Brandon Prust are the other LWs in the organization currently). If Tanguay is dealt and Huselius bolts for greener pastures in the off-season, Sutter would have to replace two top 6 LWers from a fairly mediocre UFA pool (Brendadn Shanahan, Ladislav Nagy, Marcus Naslund and Ryan Malone are the cream of the crop). All the cap space in the world isn’t going to help in that situation. Oh, as an added complication…Sutter would have to worry about re-signing Ryder as well. Assuming, of course, Ryder would want to stay and the Flames would want to keep him.

In short, Ryder for Tanguay makes the Flames significantly worse: it makes them worse in the short term by damaging their drive for the play-offs and It makes them worse in the long-term, even with the increased cap flexibility and supposed addition of a Montreal “draft pick”. So even if one assumes a Canadiens first rounder, the Habs choice will probably be in the bottom 3rd of draft, eroding the chances of choosing a future NHLer…who wouldn’t even be able to help the Flames for another 3 to 5 years anyways.

In conclusion, it’s utter poppycock. Don’t believe it for a second. Calgary would need a much better return than those suggested in the above rumors and can look for such a return in the off-season if they’re so inclined.

The fight – Calgary has 66 points in 59 games played. They are tied with the Vancouver Canucks in the NW Division and are only a single point ahead of the Colorado Avalanche. Overall, they currently sit in 8th spot – the cusp of the Western Conference play-off bubble – tied in points with the Phoenix Coyotes, and with the aforementioned Avs (65), St Louis Blues (63) and Columbus Blue Jackets (63) hot on their tail. Fan and media expectations for the Flames have rarely been higher heading into the season, considering the quality and expense of the players on the roster. As such, there is considerable pressure on Sutter and Flames upper-management to succeed now. Put simply, missing the post-season is not an option.

The Cap – This season Sutter locked up a bunch of the Flames heavy lifters to long-term contracts. Robyn Regehr, Jarome Iginla, Miika Kiprusoff and Dion Phaneuf were all granted multi-year extensions, with a majority of them getting hefty raises to boot. So while the organization’s core is in place, Flames management faces the difficult task of re-signing or replacing the likes of Kristian Huselius, Damond Langkow, Craig Conroy, Stephane Yelle, David Hale and Owen Nolan in the off-season on a thread-bare budget. To give context to the severity of the situation, four of those players are currently top 6 forwards for the Flames. With about 48M already committed to next year and the cap purportedly rising to something between 54 and 58M, Sutter has roughly 6-10M in projected cap-space to work with. Or, in more qualitative terms: “not nearly enough”.

The UFAs – The primary assets of concern heading into the deadline are Huselius and Langkow. They both enjoyed career seasons last year, each scoring 77 points, and both are on pace to score 60+ points again this season. As such, both are in line for significantly larger deals this summer (Huselius makes 1.4M this year, Langkow 2.442M). They represent two thirds of the Flames #1 line right now (with Jarome Iginla) and each could likely command upwards of 5M/year on the open market come July.

The Conundrum – Sutter now faces the difficult decision of liquidating his attractive UFAs at the deadline, with the concurrent risk of hobbling the team’s chances of making the play-offs and/or achieving post-season success. Alternatively, he faces the equally unpleasant possibility of keeping Huselius and Langkow for the stretch drive, falling in the first or second round anyways, and then losing them for nothing in the summer.

Given that Calgary is going to need some relative bargains up front to cheaply but effectively fill out their forward roster in the near future, acquiring young but established players, plus the odd prospect and/or draft pick (read: draft day bargaining chips) at the deadline is likely an attractive option for the Flames GM. Whether Sutter deals one or both of Langkow/Huselius will depend on the nature of the packages offered. A roster player that is signed beyond this season to a relatively cheap salary + a decent prospect/pick might just do the trick. Example: Ottawa is said to be looking for more secondary scoring at the deadline. Kristian Huselius for Antoine Vermette or Chris Kelly+a draft pick might make sense for both teams.

The Salary Dumps – The Flames also have a lot of “roster fat” that Sutter would no doubt like to trim in order to increase that 6-10M in (potential) cap room next year. Players like Wayne Primeau (20GP, 2g-2a-4pts, -5), Marcus Nilsoin (28 GP, 2g-1a-3pts, +3) and Rhett Warrener (27GP, 0g-3a-3pts, -1) contribute little and fail to justify their respective cap-hits (1.4M, 1M and 2.35M). Each is signed beyond this season and each could conceivably be replaced by a farm-hand or bargain basement replacement (500k) without really effecting the club’s on-ice performance. With that in mind, Sutter may look to package one or more of these guys if he does decide to deal any of his other attractive pieces in the next 7 days or so.

Conclusions -

In short, the Flames:

- Have a lot of roster holes to plug next season and little cap space with which to do it.

- Have an urgent need to make the play-offs this year, with an inexorable tooth-and-nail stretch drive staring them in the face.

As such, they:

- Cannot trade for big contracts that extend beyond this year (unless they trade some of their own).

- Need to retain their high value contracts (ie: bargains, ie: Matt Lombardi @ 1.83M/year).

- Would like to get value for Langkow or Huselius now without doing too much damage to the roster and hobbling their post-season aspirations.

- Would like to deal away some of the “empty calories” that are bloating their total salary/cap hit.

Keep this stuff in mind when reading Calgary trade rumors in the media heading into next Tuesday. Whatever happens, I’m certain that this trade deadline is going to be a very interesting one for Flames fans.